A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
